All is not well !

Professor M. A. Taslim writes on the current threats to the Bangladesh economy with a focus on declining trends in imports, its relation with investment demand, and then linked up those with overall GDP growth. The relationship between governance and growth also came up in the concluding remarks.

Link of the article.

Uncertainty rules growth!

Shahidul Islam writes in the Financial Express on how uncertain economic prospect affects economic growth, mainly in the context of Bangladesh, especially for FY2013. The article rightly points out to the slowed GDP growth prospect in FY2013 based on the ongoing global and domestic economic uncertainties.

Link of the article.   

Bangladesh Development Update, WB

World Bank publishes a detailed economic update 'Bangladesh Development Update, April 2013' with recent economic and social development, development progress, and challenges to development opportunities.

Link for the Report. 

FY13 GDP Growth Debate

Last few weeks, debate on projected GDP growth rate for FY13 came into the discussion. Although in the budget FY13, based on the 6^th Five-Year Plan, the government set an ambitious target of 7.2% GDP growth, the reality was quite different from the target, mainly due to delayed recovery of global economic development.

As FY13 is coming to an end soon, predictions over GDP growth rate by various government, multilateral organizations and rating agencies clearly show that it won’t be possible to achieve target GDP growth rate of 7.2% (Figure below). Interestingly, there is a wide gap between the target and predicted GDP growth rate. The same scenario was observed in the last FY, when the target and actual GDP growth rates were 7.0% and 6.3%, respectively.  

Two basic reasons came up in almost all analyses:

1. Slowed recovery of global economies; and 2. Recent political crisis inside the country

News on various economic updates:

1. Finance Minister, BBS and BB
2. IMF 
3. World Bank 
4. ADB
5. Moody’s     

Asian Development Outlook 2013

Asian Development Bank publishes its flagship publication 'Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2013', where the focus issue is Asia's energy challenges.

Well, there is a Bangladesh chapter too, as usual. Bangladesh Chapter of ADO clearly indicates that Bangladesh GDP growth for FY2013 will be 5.7% against the actual GDP growth of 6.3% in FY2012.

Link of the ADO.
Link for Bangladesh Chapter.

Financial crises: questions and lessons

Two leading IMF economists, Stijn Claessens and M Ayhan Kose, write on on three basic questions related to the recent financial crises: 

• What are the main factors explaining financial crises?
• What are the major types of financial crises?
• What are the real and financial sector implications of crises?

 Link of their analysis.

Five Lessons for Economists from Financial Crisis!

Olivier Blanchard, Former MIT Faculty and IMF Chief Economist, offers five lessons for economists from recent global financial crisis, as published in the Wall Street Journal.

1. Humility is in order;
2. The financial system matters a lot;
3. Interconnectedness matters;
4. We don't know if macro-prudential tools work; and
5. Central bank independence wasn't designed for what central banks are now asked to do.

Link of the report. 

Statement of IMF Mission

An IMF mission just visited Bangladesh during 20 March - 2 April, and made an statement after mission finished. Among other issues, the mission gave its opinion on the GDP growth prospect in FY2013, as follows:

"Unrest in recent months is affecting economic activity, with real GDP growth now expected to moderate to below 6 percent in fiscal year (FY) 2013 (July 2012-June 2013)."

Link of the statement.

Comparing macro variables

Comparison of economic achievements under various governments is a complicated effort. There is no direct way to measure it because of time inconsistency problem. Why it is? Say, in reality, time series variables have a trend to move upward, or downward. There is a strong possibility, in most of the cases it is the truth, the effort of governments rarely reflects the movement of variables. Lots of issues are interconnected, and unless one is not closely inclined to basic economics and econometrics knowledge, they will rarely explore such issues.

Let us know a few clarifications. First of all, for example, there are two parties, who come to the power on consecutive periods. Let’s assume that there are 3 periods, Period 1, Period 2 and Period 3 and two parties: Party A and Party B. As mentioned earlier, macro variables have a trend and move accordingly. Now, if one macro variable, say, real GDP growth, moves upward with time under three consecutive governments when two parties was in the power one after another (Table below), then it will be silly to make a statement like such: rise in real GDP growth took place because this party was in power at that time. Basic economic knowledge won’t tolerate this sort of novice statement. For those, suggestion would be to review Macroeconomics 102 again.            

Period	Party in the Power
Period 1 (5 Years)	Party A
Period 2 (5 Years)	Party B
Period 3 (5 Years)	Party A

Secondly, a common suggestion would be: rather observing development in macro variables for comparisons, one may look for a policy based economic analysis, through which making comparison of policies taken by various governments is possible. Say, if the price of cell phone is Tk5000 under Period 3 (Table above), reduced from Tk10,000 under Period 2, then Party A can’t claim that during their period, prices went down as compared to what was the price during Period 2 where Party B was in power. Party A can only claim such if prices reduced due to policy shifts taken by Party A during Period 3.     

Third, this is again basic economics knowledge: an achievement in Period 3 doesn’t necessarily mean that it is the effect of policy actions taken in Period 3. In reality, development in macroeconomic variables follows lag actions and usually it takes several periods before getting the actual results of a policy action taken by a particular government.  

Profile of Christina Romer

IMF's Finance and Development profiles Christina Romer, Former Chair of the US Council of Economic Advisers.

Link of the Profile.

First Review of IMF on ECF

The IMF published its staff report for the first review under the three-year arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility along with Joint IMF-World Bank Debt Sustainability Analysis.

Link of the report.  

Vague monetary policy stance by BB?

Professor M A Taslim finds a misleading concept (so-called 'productive sectors') in BB's monetary policy statement while defending its rapid credit growth to the economy and its marginal impact on inflation development.The main argument pointed out by Professor Taslim is that 'if the economy is working at full capacity, a flow of additional credit to investment in 'productive sectors' will exert inflationary pressures as surely as additional credit spent on consumer goods'. Though he didn't provide any empirical evidence for his argument (except an US example in early 1900s), it is still a strong theoretical debate that requires further thought by the monetary authority. Hope, they feel it!

Link of the article.  

Finance & Development, March 2013

IMF publishes its Finance and Development, March 2013 edition.

Link for F&D.

Interview of Professor Mustafizur Rahman

Professor Mustafizur Rahman, Executive Director, Centre for Policy Dialogue, talks on the possible impact on the Bangladesh economy if the US withdraws GSP facilities. The interview itself is a good piece to know about this much talking issue, especially on the extent of the problem, its relation with TICFA treaty, possible consequences of those and remedies.

Link of the interview.   

Profile of Stanley Fischer

If you want to read the profile of Stanley Fischer (Current Governor of the Bank of Israel, former MIT Professor in Economics), here is the link from The Washington Post.