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Monday, April 15, 2013

FY13 GDP Growth Debate

Last few weeks, debate on projected GDP growth rate for FY13 came into the discussion. Although in the budget FY13, based on the 6th Five-Year Plan, the government set an ambitious target of 7.2% GDP growth, the reality was quite different from the target, mainly due to delayed recovery of global economic development.

As FY13 is coming to an end soon, predictions over GDP growth rate by various government, multilateral organizations and rating agencies clearly show that it won’t be possible to achieve target GDP growth rate of 7.2% (Figure below). Interestingly, there is a wide gap between the target and predicted GDP growth rate. The same scenario was observed in the last FY, when the target and actual GDP growth rates were 7.0% and 6.3%, respectively.  

Two basic reasons came up in almost all analyses:
1. Slowed recovery of global economies; and 2. Recent political crisis inside the country

News on various economic updates:
  1. Finance Minister, BBS and BB
  2. IMF 
  3. World Bank 
  4. ADB
  5. Moody’s     

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