ADB Study: The Economic Impact of the COVID-19 Outbreak on Developing Asia

The link for the study: https://www.adb.org/what-we-do/covid19-coronavirus

Key Messages:

• The ongoing COVID-19 outbreak affects the People's Republic of China (PRC) and other developing Asian economies through numerous channels, including sharp declines in domestic demand, lower tourism and business travel, trade and production linkages, supply disruptions, and health effects.
• The magnitude of the economic impact will depend on how the outbreak evolves, which remains highly uncertain. Rather than focusing on a single estimate, it is important to explore a range of scenarios, assess the impact conditional on these scenarios materializing, and to update the scenarios as needed.
• The range of scenarios explored in this brief suggest a global impact of $77 billion to $347 billion or 0.1% to 0.4% of global GDP, with a moderate case estimate of $156 billion or 0.2% of global GDP. Two-thirds of the impact falls on the PRC, where the outbreak has been concentrated so far.
• The estimated impact on individual developing Asian economies—and on sectors within these economies—is provided in this brief, including a hypothetical worst-case scenario for a given economy that experiences a significant outbreak of its own.